One of the major problems that we face as people, corporations or even as nations is uncertainty. it could be in day to day business activities, long-term palnning and sometimes instinct decisions.
i always think about certainty and uncertainty...how certain am i in getting an A in Management class? let me share this recent experience. Few days ago, i moved to a new apartment, for some reasons the moving process had to be done in 2 days. Now, i have a lot of friends, close friends, so i chose 4 of my friends to help me move plus myself. I only needed 2 of them but i said to myself just in case something happened to one of them or two. At this point, everything is well-planned, the guys are coming tomorrow, maybe we grab couple drinks after...
Next day only one of them showed up and my phone was ringing all day, lot of apologies, some with good excuses...i don't blame them it was such a short notice, last minutes type of move.
anyway, my point here is that and beside this story, i run a lot in to the uncertainty effect and how it could be in some situations dramatic or maybe lucky in others.
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I can see that you already have a really good management skill of your rate of uncertainty. Your story reminds me of the rate of return and law of large numbers. I think it is common to see such situation going around us; my advice as you already did in the story is to apply backup plans. It is a great method that you used.
ReplyDeleteI'm sorry that all your friends didn't show up to help you move, but you seemed to have a good plan. That was great planning and management skills to call a few extra friends so if something unexpected did happen, you would still have someone to help out. Im glad you did call some extra people so you were not left to do it by yourself.
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